Introducing the Green Bean Ratio

1|Bo Bichette|19|448|.361/.422/.560|0.575
2|Lewis Brinson|23|299|.331/.400/.561|0.655
3|Rhys Hoskins|24|401|.284/.385/.578|0.462
4|Colin Moran|24|302|.307/.372/.539|0.509
5|Willie Calhoun|22|486|.300/.354/.569|0.671
6|Austin Hays|21|523|.328/.365/.592|0.645
7|Anthony Villa|23|226|.314/.453/.615|0.575
8|Tony Kemp|25|504|.329/.375/.468|0.84
9|Jordan Luplow|23|414|.301/.380/.524|0.629
10|Ryder Jones|23|237|.312/.395/.573|0.594
11|Brendan Rodgers|20|372|.336/.372/.561|0.655
12|Casey Golden|22|208|.288/.372/.653|0.381
13|Darrell Miller|23|186|.376/.459/.553|0.557
14|Breyvic Valera|25|424|.313/.368/.448|0.716
15|Scott Kingery|23|543|.303/.358/.528|0.52
16|Brian Mundell|23|436|.300/.384/.470|0.604
17|Brett Phillips|23|383|.305/.377/.566|0.465
18|Tim Locastro|24|471|.307/.382/.452|0.677
19|Luis Hidalgo|21|252|.349/.405/.511|0.73
20|Ryan McMahon|22|470|.355/.402/.580|0.815
2014|Cody Bellinger|18|195|.328/.367/.502|1.037
2015|Cody Bellinger|19|478|.263/.335/.537|0.475
2014|Eddy Alvarez|24|182|.346/.433/.494|1.281
2015|Eddy Alvarez|25|450|.295/.409/.422|0.873
2014|J.P. Crawford|19|463|.285/.375/.403|1.068
2015|J.P. Crawford|20|430|.288/.379/.409|0.657
2014|Sam Travis|20|272|.316/.350/.459|1.242
2015|Sam Travis|21|489|.306/.381/.447|0.833
2014|Kennys Vargas|23|356|.280/.360/.471|1.109
2015|Kennys Vargas|24|244|.282/.413/.487|0.517
2014|Justin Williams|18|291|.350/.403/.467|2.246
2015|Justin Williams|19|470|.276/.297/.389|1.536
2014|Erik Gonzalez|22|437|.308/.351/.425|1.464
2015|Erik Gonzalez|23|549|.255/.292/.371|1.055
2014|Charcer Burks|19|193|.310/.392/.404|1.285
2015|Charcer Burks|20|435|.257/.338/.344|0.619
2014|Mike Hill|22|229|.288/.345/.441|1.231
2015|Mike Hill|23|302|.251/.305/.403|0.736
2014|Kean Wong|19|422|.305/.347/.369|1.643
2015|Kean Wong|20|394|.274/.319/.329|1.154

In his series focusing on toolsy OF prospects, Baseball Farmer Chris Williamson has been utilizing batted ball data as part of his overall scouting. In his piece on Cristian Pache, CW points out that Pache’s Groundball to Line Drive + Flyball Ratio (GB/LD+FB) has improved, which might portend an increase in extra base hits.

We’ve named CW’s ratio the ‘Green Bean’ Ratio. Here is a list of Baseball Farm’s top hitting performers from 2017, including their Green Bean ratio:

 

Our research has indicated that the Green Bean ratio is correlated with Slugging Percentage. You can use the Green Bean ratio as a kind of leading indicator to search for potential power breakouts. For example, here is a list of hitters who saw the biggest gains in their Green Bean ratio from 2014 to 2015:

 

While a slugging jump didn’t happen immediately for these prospects who made strides in their Green Bean ratios, there are several notable names on this list, obviously starting at the top:

Cody Bellinger completely changed his swing profile between 2014 and 2015, dropping his Green Bean ratio from 1.037 to 0.475, with a corresponding 30+ point jump in slugging percentage to go with it. Bellinger continued to hit for power at each stop in his development, slugging .581 in the majors last season en route to earning unanimous rookie of the year honors.

J.P. Crawford made similar strides between 2014 and 2015, dropping his green bean number from over 1.0 (more groundballs than line drives and flyballs combined) to 0.657. He’s carried a slugging percentage over .400 at each stop.

Kennys Vargas made an adjustment from 2014 to 2015, dropping his green bean ratio to 0.517. In 2016, he slugged an even .500 in the majors.

Charcer Burks is an interesting prospect in the Cubs system. He also saw a significant drop in his green bean ratio between 2014 and 2015. In 2016, his slugging percentage jumped to .407 in High-A ball, and in 2017 he slugged .395 in AA.

While a power breakout is not guaranteed, the Green Bean ratio is another statistical tool you can use to evaluate potential power breakouts. Good luck, and happy farming!

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