Jason Woodell’s Scouting Reports: 6/4 (Justin Dunn, St. Lucie Mets)

Jason Woodell (@JasonAtTheGame) is back on the Farm with another scouting report. In this installment, Jason breaks down the Mets #3 RHP prospect Justin Dunn‘s pitch sequencing in a game against the Tampa Tarpons on 6/4. Dunn is in the midst of an impressive 2018 campaign at High-A St Lucie and the Boston College alum has certainly impressed Jason on this night.

Justin Dunn Pitch sequencing

7 IP 2H 0ER 1BB 10K against Tampa Tarpons
93 pitches/58 strikes
49 fastballs (FB)
17 sliders (SL)
24 change-ups (CH)
3 curveballs (CB)

Strikes in bold

1st Inning:
Ben Ruta, LH: 94 FB 88 CH – F7
Hoy Jun Park, LH: 96 FB 94 FB – F8
Alexander Palma, RH: 95 FB 84 SL 84 SL 6-3

Quick and efficient inning. Used the FB 1st pitch to all 3 hitters. Backed up with offspeed to generate weak contact. Park squared the 94 FB for hard contact. Pitch left up. Gold glove calibre range by Desmond Lindsey.

2nd Inning:
Isiah Gilliam, LH: 79 CB, 86 SL, 94 FB, 93 FB, 88 CH, 89 CH – 4-3
Brandon Wagner, LH: 94 FB – F8
Dom Thompson-Williams, LH: 94 FB, 94 FB, 95 FB, 83 SL, 97 FB, 88 CH – K

The CB was fringe with minimal break. Backed up with backdoor SL to Gilliam for strike 1. After showing him the FB, backed up 2 change-ups for weak GB contact.

3rd Inning:
Mandy Alvarez, RH: 94 FB, 85 SL, 84 SL – K
Kellin Deglan, LH: 95 FB, 95 FB, 95 FB, 89 CH, 90 CH, 96 FB, 85 SL – K looking
Angel Aguilar, RH: 80 CB, 80 CB, 95 FB, 95 FB, 95 FB, 86 SL – K

Struck out side, up to 4 straight, all on off-speed pitches. Throws the SL with confidence in full counts. Retired 9 straight.

4th Inning:
Ruta: 83 SL, 94 FB, 87 CH – Single (caught stealing during the Park AB)
Park: 93 FB, 92 FB, 94 FB, 88 CH, 88 CH – K
Palma: 96 FB, 96 FB, 90 CH, 85 SL – K

Gives up first hit behind on a 2-0 change-up. Threw Park a 2-1 and 2-2 CH. This is the biggest difference in Dunn’s development. Showing confidence with throwing the CH behind in the count and backing it up.

5th Inning:
Gilliam: 95 FB, 95 FB, 85 SL, 88 CH – K
Wagner: 83 SL, 94 FB, 95 FB, 93 FB, 95 FB – K looking
DTW: 94 FB, 90 CH, 89 CH, 85 SL – K looking

Dunn’s best inning of the night. 5 straight K with 4 coming on the off-speed. Dunn uses his SL to backdoor lefties to get ahead in the count and to put them away. The CH faded away from lefties. Both pitches kept left handers off balance. The strikeout of Wagner was the only one so far that was on a FB. That pitch was on the inside black.

6th Inning:
Alvarez: 95 FB, 96 FB, 81 SL – Bloop single
Deglan: 94 FB – HBP
Aguilar: 93 FB, 83 SL (Bunt attempts fouled off on 1st 2 pitches), 85 SL – 5un FC
**Both Sliders to Alvarez and Aguilar generated weak contact. Both hitters way extremely out front and fooled.
Ruta: 95 FB – F8
Park: 88 CH, 88 CH, 95 FB, 89 CH, 95 FB, 89 CH – K

Third time through the order. Park had seen 5 FB 2CH in 1st 2 AB. The FB in AB3 were out of the zone intentionally to set Park up. 2-1 and 2-2 CH for the strikeout. Shows ability and confidence to go to his off-speed with RISP.

7th Inning:
Palma: 87 CH, 93 FB – 6-3
Gilliam: 93 FB, 81 SL, 89 CH, 88 CH, 96 FB, 84 SL, 96 FB – K looking
Wagner: 82 SL, 94 FB, 93 FB, 89 CH, 95 FB – Walk
DTW: 95 FB, 94 FB – F8

The sequence to Gilliam was brilliant. Kept him off balance and guessing all night. After abusing him earlier with CH and backdoor SL, locked him up on a FB.

Overall, Dunn flashed three 60 grade pitches with 60 grade command. His mechanics were near perfect with excellent arm speed on his off-speed pitches. His SL has a chance to be special but it was his CH and the confidence he showed throwing it behind in the count that will be the difference maker. This is the performance that vaults Dunn into Top 100 prospect conversation.

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