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1. Gavin Lux – SS
2019 Top-30
Bio:
Age: 22 yr, Weight: 190 lbs, Height: 6-2
Hits/Throws: L/R
School: Indian Trail (WI) HS
MLB Draft: Round 1, Overall: 20
Future Value
Ceiling: 70
Realistic: 55
Current Level: MLB, ETA: 2019
2019AVGOBPSLGHRSBCSISOK%BB%SwStr%Est FB (ft)
-.347.420.60426106.25719.511.78.5311.8
The upside may not be as high as 2019 portended, but Gavin Lux is a surefire everyday major leaguer with All-Star upside.

Perhaps no prospect in baseball raised his stock more than Gavin Lux in the last year. After starting Double-A in 2019 like he finished it in 2018, the Dodgers tested the 21-year-old in the PCL. His contact ability, a juiced ball, emerging power and a hitter’s park combined to form a perfect storm of one of the most prolific 49-game samples you’ll see. Lux and his Triple-A 1.197 OPS sent him soaring onto top 10 prospect lists.

A year ago when he ranked fourth in this installation, I posited that he had 20 home run power in his bat. The Dodgers development once again have maximized the power output of another player. Lux widened his stance this year, lost a brief hand waggle, lowered his front shoulder as he began his momentum toward home plate and his hips loosened. In short, the path his body took to the ball got a little more efficient and his quick hands and strong wrists did the rest.

He has above-average speed at present but subpar instincts on the paths, so he’s liable to grab 10 steals a season in his early career. He’s an average defender at second base with a below average arm. Even if Corey Seager leaves, I’m not sure Lux is going back to his native shortstop. With his discerning eye, Lux is the perfect player for the juiced ball, but I worry MLB will tweak it once more and his 28 combined home runs last year will be hard to replicate. All that said, he’s the rare top prospect in a system who has a perennial All-Star ceiling and a “Low” risk grade.