Scouting and Statlines (by Chip Bourne)
Chip ran some data this offseason and found an interesting lack of correlation between a player’s Rookie-level performance and his subsequent MLB career performance in WAR:
Chip also looked at whether a hitter’s wRC+ in the lower minors levels correlates to his future wRC+ at higher minor league levels. It does not correlate well:
So, pay extra attention to the scouting reports at the lower minor league levels. They are more likely to pay dividends than just looking at stat lines alone.