Valuing Victor Victor Mesa (by Chris Blessing)
Chris is a prospect writer at Baseball HQ, contributing on the Minor League Baseball Analyst and Baseball HQ’s Baseball Forecaster.
Prepping for first-year player drafts is an exciting time to look back at your past successes and failures. Only then you’ll be able to focus on how you can improve your draft strategy. Undoubtedly, you’ve taken the first step. You’ve sought help from my friends at Baseball Farm. If you are astute, this is likely one of many fantasy prospect resources you have consulted, including Baseball HQ and the Minor League Baseball Analyst (Cheap Plugs). Only after collaborative research, you can properly organize your draft lists and avoid regrettable mistakes.
The biggest mistake I’ve seen in first-year player mock drafts is the overvaluation of Marlins OF Victor Victor Mesa. Mesa is not a bad player and/or a guy you shouldn’t invest in. Simply, he’s not a player to take in the 1st round of the draft. An argument can be made he’s not even the best International Free Agent signee this year to covet, with guys like Rangers OF Juan Pablo Martinez (*If eligible/available), Giants SS/OF Marco Luciano or Blue Jays SS Orelvis Martinez also available. Why?
For starters, the information on Mesa is limited. The scoutable video out there is from a workout, not even a showcase event. The swing is flat, which should diminish power potential. Also, Mesa lacks the explosive wrists we’ve seen out of other highly touted Cuban prospects, like Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada. I’ve seen experts not do their diligence when grading out his hit tool, relying more on what other evaluators have said without vetting information. Understand, amateur scouting is speculative while with pro scouting, we’re looking for fits. Mesa could be this, this and this but we’re now wanting to know how it all fits into fantasy. Mesa’s run tool is for real and his ability to excel in CF defensively is a plus for his overall prospect status. However, it’s a fringe-average raw power profile with an average hit tool. While I have him ranked lower on my own personal list¸ Baseball Farm has done a great job reflecting Mesa’s true value by ranking him as a Tier 3 First Year prospect, a prospect you should look to target at the end of the 2nd round through the 4th round.